Determination of the Price of Copper through Explanatory Multiple Linear Regression Models

Abstract

The 2001 United States economic recession, the crisis in Japan, the low economic growth of Western Europe, and past international events such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks on Washington and New York, the invasion of Afghanistan, and the war in Iraq. They are factors that affected the price of copper in the period 2000-2003.

In this context, what was done in this research study was to analyze these factors through explanatory multiple linear regression models to help understand how the price of copper behaved due to these circumstances.

Four models were obtained, which resulted in the following: some macroeconomic indices of the main consumers of refined copper in the world, which are: China, the United States and Japan, temporary closures in important mines, it is also advisable to follow the evolution of the inventory of the London Metal Exchange, the future oil price can be taken into account, the depreciation of the US currency (dollar) in relation to the Japanese yen, etc., can cause important changes in the copper price quote.