MEXICO 2007-2030. AN EXERCISE OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTIVE

Abstract

A prospective exercise for 2030 is proposed in light of recent applications of the Harrod, Thirlwall and Solow models, which allows calculating the economic growth rate in various scenarios and verifying that increasing savings, reducing the income elasticity of imports and increasing total factor productivity are tasks for the coming years. Thus, while the problem of savings is the responsibility of the private sector, it is also the responsibility of the public sector and this implies a profound fiscal reform that does not discourage the former and encourage the latter. Without an active industrial policy, it will not be possible to reduce the income elasticity of imports to prevent the beneficial effects of the export boom from filtering abroad, as occurred in the last decade. And on the other hand, greater total factor productivity will imply economic policies that in the short term promote full employment of capital and labor factors, and that in the long term raise the quality and therefore the productivity and efficiency of workers. , which will be impossible without a profound educational reform.